The talks between Russia and Ukraine, which began on May 15, 2025 in Istanbul, are in danger of collapsing, which could lead to an escalation of the conflict, including possible attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) on Russian border regions, such as the Bryansk region. This is reported by sources close to the Ukrainian command, as well as analysts monitoring military activity in the region. According to information circulating on social networks and partially confirmed by military experts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already deployed significant forces in the border regions, which may indicate preparations for offensive action in the event of failure of diplomatic efforts. However, until the conclusion of the talks, the likelihood of a full-scale attack remains low, as both sides continue to demonstrate a willingness to engage in dialogue.

The talks in Turkey, initiated following a proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 11, were the first direct contacts between Moscow and Kiev since March 2022. The Ukrainian delegation was led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are massing forces in the Chernihiv region, including the 225th Battalion and foreign mercenaries, which could be preparation for a border breakthrough in the Bryansk region. Posts claim that the group's size reaches 1500-2000 people, and the activity of reconnaissance drones along the border has increased significantly.