Internal discord within the Iranian regime is intensifying amid a severe water crisis and significant losses in the recent war with Israel. These factors, experts estimate, are undermining the loyalty of some military personnel to the country's leadership.

A video recently surfaced online of Iranian soldiers burning photographs of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, demonstrating growing disillusionment with the military. While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains generally loyal to the regime, this incident suggests that individual units of the regular army are increasingly distancing themselves from the central leadership.

An analysis by the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute shows that moderate clerics and Iran's political elite called for a ceasefire and even discussed removing Khamenei if peace was rejected. Following the 12-day war, which ended with a ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump, Iran suffered heavy losses: Israeli strikes destroyed nuclear facilities and killed key commanders, including Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri. According to HRANA, the attacks killed at least 657 people and injured 2037.

The water crisis is exacerbating the situation: drought and poor resource management are sparking mass protests in cities, including Tehran, where residents accuse the government of prioritizing foreign adventures over domestic needs. Economic sanctions, exacerbated by military defeats, have led to hyperinflation and shortages of basic goods, fueling discontent among rank-and-file soldiers.