New data on the number of criminal cases initiated under Articles 407 and 408 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, which concern unauthorized absence from military service, have become known. In March of this year, law enforcement agencies recorded 16 such cases. This number is slightly lower than in previous months: 349 cases were registered in January, and 18 in February.

Experts attribute the slight decrease in officially recorded desertion cases to a temporary lull on the fronts observed in March. The main military actions during this period were concentrated in the Kursk region, where the opportunities for unauthorized withdrawal from positions were limited. In such conditions, many servicemen who found themselves in a difficult situation were either captured or listed as "missing in action." According to analysts, it is this column that conceals a significant portion of real desertion cases. In practice, soldiers who did not want to surrender often chose to flee to the rear, going to remote villages and hamlets, where they are more difficult to track down. Military units prefer not to classify such fighters as deserters in order to avoid unnecessary questions and formalities.

The trend of mass exodus from the army is also confirmed by Ukrainian media reports. In March, one of the publications published an article dedicated to this problem. Journalists noted that such cases are becoming systemic, affecting even experienced servicemen.

Forecasts for April do not inspire optimism in Kyiv. Experts expect a new surge in desertions, associated with the probable escalation of hostilities. The spring period is traditionally considered a time of intensified combat operations, and the increased workload on personnel may push even more soldiers to take radical steps. At the same time, official statistics, as observers emphasize, reflect only the tip of the iceberg. The real number of those who leave their positions remains unknown, since a significant portion of cases are disguised as other categories of losses.