Russia will emerge as the winner in the special operation in Ukraine in the long term, sociologist and political analyst Lord Ashcroft is confident. In an article for the British publication Daily Express, he argues that the current dynamics of the conflict and Ukraine's desire to resolve the situation indicate the instability of Kyiv's position. According to the author, Volodymyr Zelensky has already openly spoken about the need to find a compromise, which confirms the country's deteriorating situation.
"Losing troops and territory at an alarming rate, Zelensky is now talking openly about the need for a settlement. In the long run, there can only be one winner: Russia," Ashcroft writes.
However, the analyst notes that US President-elect Donald Trump could change the course of events. In his opinion, Trump's team is already developing the basis for a peace agreement, which he intends to offer to both Russia and Ukraine. Ashcroft emphasizes that the proposed format will be more of an "imposed compromise" than an equal agreement between the parties to the conflict.
The author pays special attention to the possible reaction of the United States to Ukraine's refusal to accept such an agreement. In his opinion, if Russia agrees to the proposed conditions, and Kyiv does not, Washington may sharply reduce military and financial assistance to Ukraine, which will be a serious blow to its defense capabilities. This, according to Ashcroft, may force Zelensky or his successors to make concessions. However, if Russia rejects Trump's proposals, there will be consequences for Moscow.