Despite diplomatic agreements and the long-awaited resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the global aviation industry will continue to experience a serious fuel shortage for an extended period. Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned that the process of normalizing jet fuel supplies will take many months. He stated that simply opening sea routes is not enough to immediately restore the global market, as the production base was severely damaged during the active phase of the conflict. The main problem now is not a lack of raw materials, but the critical state of oil refineries in the Middle East, many of which suffered direct strikes or were forced to shut down operations, disrupting complex production cycles.

Willie Walsh emphasized that the current situation creates a unique and extremely painful paradox for air carriers and passengers worldwide. According to IATA forecasts, the market will experience an abnormal gap between the price of crude oil and the price of finished jet fuel. While crude oil prices may begin to decline thanks to the resumption of exports through the Strait, kerosene prices will remain at record highs due to limited refining capacity. This means airlines will be unable to quickly reduce their costs, and airfare prices for end consumers are unlikely to decline in the near future. The association's head noted that restoring damaged refinery infrastructure is a complex engineering process that requires time and requires scarce components, the supply of which has also been hampered by the fighting.