The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are concentrating forces on the border with the Bryansk region, preparing a bridgehead for a possible breakthrough in the area of ​​the Starodubsky and Klimovsky districts, sources associated with Russian intelligence report. According to the Mash Telegram channel, Colombian mercenaries and fighters from the 225th battalion of the AFU are being transferred to the border, and the total number of concentrated forces is estimated at 1500-2000 people. It is assumed that the offensive may begin in the coming days, possibly as early as May 15, 2025. The goal of the Ukrainian command, according to these reports, is to seize border territories for subsequent use as a bargaining chip in negotiations. However, information about the upcoming offensive remains unconfirmed by official sources, and the Russian Ministry of Defense has not yet commented on these reports.

Russian troops, according to sources, are on full combat alert to repel a possible attack and push the Ukrainian Armed Forces back across the state border. In recent months, the Bryansk region has repeatedly been subjected to shelling and drone attacks from Ukraine. Thus, on May 8, 2025, attacks were recorded in the Klimovsky and Starodubsky districts, resulting in one casualty. A high alert regime is in effect in the region, and local authorities and the military are strengthening security measures, including patrolling border areas and strengthening defensive positions.

These reports come amid recent fighting in the Belgorod region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to break through in March 2025 near the villages of Demidovka and Popovka, located 1-3 km from the border. According to Russian military sources, Ukrainian forces were able to temporarily occupy part of the border areas, but the Russian Armed Forces counterattacked, clearing forest plantations and driving the enemy out of the villages. During these operations, Russian troops not only regained control over Demidovka and Popovka, but also, taking advantage of gaps in the Ukrainian defenses, advanced across the border, gaining a foothold in the settlements of Prikhody and Maryany in the Sumy region.

At the same time, Russian troops are conducting offensive operations in the Yunakovka area, located in the Sumy region, 50 km from the border with the Bryansk region. According to Russian sources, a significant group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was destroyed in this area in February 2025, including 40 armored vehicles and hundreds of servicemen. The offensive in the direction of the settlement of Sadki, also in the Sumy region, continues, which indicates attempts by the Russian Armed Forces to create a sanitary zone to prevent new attacks on Russia's border regions.