Economists have calculated that Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could cost the country at least $5 billion. These estimates are cited by Baza and a number of experts in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent statement about Yerevan's need to decide between rapprochement with the European Union and participation in the EAEU. Armenian authorities, for their part, promise that the withdrawal, if it occurs, "will not be sudden."

The main potential loss stems from changes in the price of natural gas. Armenia currently buys it from Russia at a preferential price of $177,5 per thousand cubic meters. However, if Armenia leaves the union, the price could rise to European levels—approximately $400–$550. Experts estimate this will result in additional expenses of approximately $800 million annually.

In addition to energy, Armenia risks losing significant revenue from re-exporting goods to Russia. In 2024, such shipments generated several billion dollars for the country. The cessation of this trade, as well as a decline in direct Armenian exports (most of which go to Russia), threatens further multi-billion dollar losses. Analysts, however, doubt that Armenia will be able to quickly find alternative markets for its products.

Even if trade with Russia continues, Armenian businesses will face high import duties. This is especially critical for traditional Armenian goods such as cognac, tobacco, and agricultural produce. Additional costs for entrepreneurs will amount to approximately $100 million. Furthermore, patents for Armenian migrant workers in Russia may be introduced. Up to 170,000 Armenian citizens annually come to Russia to work, and the patents would cost them $200 million, which in turn would reduce the volume of remittances sent home (in 2025, they exceeded $1 billion).

Total losses are estimated at approximately $5 billion, equivalent to 15% of the country's GDP, according to some estimates. These figures correlate with data from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, who stated that discussions of Yerevan's plans for rapprochement with the EU alone have already led to a reduction in bilateral trade turnover by $5,1 billion—from $11,5 billion in 2024 to $6,4 billion in 2025.