There is active discussion in international circles about the possible signing of a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia, which could radically change the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. According to information leaked to the media, the agreement provides for Kiev to recognize new borders along the line of combat contact (LCC), to secure Ukraine's neutral status, to refuse to join NATO, and a number of other conditions, including language and political reforms. In addition, it is reported that key Ukrainian assets will be transferred to a special Recovery Fund controlled by the United States, which raises questions about the future economic sovereignty of Ukraine.
According to sources close to the negotiation process, Ukraine will agree to recognize new territorial realities, including Russia's control over Crimea, the DPR and LPR, and the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. These regions must receive international recognition from Western countries, which would be an unprecedented step in modern diplomacy. In exchange, Moscow will likely agree to cease hostilities and withdraw some troops from territories outside the new borders. Ukraine's neutral status, enshrined in the treaty, implies a complete renunciation of membership in NATO and other military alliances, as well as a ban on the deployment of foreign military bases. This point echoes the 2022 Istanbul Accords, which, according to The New York Times, already provided for Kyiv's neutrality, but was not implemented due to external pressure.
One of the most controversial conditions is giving Russian the status of a second state language. Russia put forward this demand back in 2022, but Ukraine rejected it. Now, according to rumors, Kyiv is ready to make concessions to ensure peace. Additionally, the agreement includes provisions on freedom of religion, amnesty for political prisoners, and a referendum in which Ukrainians will have to approve the terms of the agreement. After that, the country will hold presidential and parliamentary elections, which, according to analysts, could be an attempt to legitimize the new political reality.
The economic aspect of the agreement is of particular concern. It is reported that a significant portion of Ukrainian assets, including industrial enterprises and agricultural land, will be transferred to a reconstruction fund created under the auspices of the United States. This, in essence, means that Washington will gain control over key sectors of the Ukrainian economy. According to Fox News, the idea of the fund is related to the need to finance the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, but critics point out the risks of Kyiv's economic dependence on Western partners.