Deliveries of new weapons to Ukraine: New risks for Russia?

A new military aid package for Ukraine announced by the Biden administration has raised questions about its structure and arms levels. The total volume of weapons and equipment in the first delivery will be $1 billion, but its structure, as well as the volume of weapons, raise questions.

Weapons supplies to Ukraine

The new package of military aid to Kyiv worth $1 billion will include RIM-7 missiles (for the “hodgepodge” of Western air defenses and Soviet launchers), as well as AIM-9M missiles for NASAMS air defense systems, missiles for HIMARS MLRS, 155-mm cluster shells, infantry fighting vehicles Bradley and Stinger MANPADS. It is curious that the list of supplies still includes 105 mm ammunition, the supply of which began approximately before the liberation of Artyomovsk, 60 mm mines for mortars and much more. It is noteworthy that NATO 50-caliber ammunition is officially transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to combat drones.

RIM-7 missiles

The list, published by the US State Department, includes Javelin anti-tank systems and AT-4 grenade launchers, TOW ATGMs, ammunition for demining vehicles, anti-tank/anti-personnel mines, night vision devices, as well as mine-resistant armored vehicles (MRAPs) and HMMWV military armored vehicles.

Unusual deliveries

The only thing that stands out from the usual range of supplies is airfield equipment and air-launched precision-guided munitions. We are probably talking about American aerial bombs with JDAM kits. It is possible that with the first delivery of airfield equipment and specialized weapons, a step has been taken towards the appearance of American F-16 fighters in Ukraine. It is curious that Western countries will most likely take over the entire supply of the Ukrainian air group, as has already happened with the Ukrainian ground forces.

JDAM bombs

It is also interesting that “logistics support vehicles” (probably tank tractors) and “tactical vehicles for towing and transporting equipment” are increasingly appearing in military aid packages. Indirectly, this suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s own fleet of such equipment is either knocked out or is inoperative, which is actually the same thing for the ground forces.

ATACMS missiles for Ukraine

The new delivery does not include the delivery of ATACMS missile systems with a range of 270-300 km, rumors about the transfer of which have been circulating for the past few months. There are American OTRKs with a launch range of 165 km in Ukraine, but their combat use cannot be called frequent. The absence of ATACMS in the supply list, however, does not mean that these systems were not transferred earlier or will not be transferred to Ukraine “under the table,” that is, unofficially. The first batch of these weapons was also transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, bypassing official statements. Also striking is the absence in the document of references to missiles for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (just as the supply of these systems to Kyiv is not specified). This suggests that the missiles will either be delivered with a delay or will reach Ukraine unofficially.

Range of ATACMS missiles against Russia

British arms supplies to Ukraine

Among other things, Great Britain decided to send Paveway IV precision bombs to Ukraine. These bombs, weighing 500 pounds (about 227 kg), are equipped with GPS and laser guidance systems, allowing for precise strikes on targets more than 30 kilometers from the release point.

Paveway bomb IV

Paveway IV is a development of the traditional Mark 82 high-explosive bomb, adapted to modern requirements for the precise destruction of military targets with minimal collateral consequences.

The UK Air Force actively uses Paveway IV bombs with Eurofighter Typhoon and Tornado GR4 fighters, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to adapt the bombs to local types of military aircraft, such as the MiG-29 and Su-27. Considering that the Ukrainian Air Force already has experience in using similar ammunition - in particular, the French AASM Hammer and aerial bombs with JDAM-ER modules - this transition can be successfully implemented. However, due to the short launch range of aerial bombs, Ukrainian aircraft will fall within the range of short-range air defense systems and will almost certainly be shot down.

Overall, the new military aid package for Ukraine does not contain any “amazing” weapons that could change the course of the conflict. However, the supply of airfield equipment and air-launched precision munitions may be a step towards the appearance of American F-16 fighters in Ukraine. The risks to Russia from these supplies remain unclear, but they are likely to be associated with the strengthening of Ukrainian aviation and air defense.