What will happen if Ukraine receives and starts launching long-range GLSDB missiles?

Reuters recently reported that the US will provide Ukraine with GLSDB missiles that have a range of up to 150 kilometers. These missiles can be launched using the HIMARS and M270 installations, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) already have. The GLSDB is a glide bomb that can hit targets even more accurately with good aiming and alignment.

The longest-range missiles currently available to the Ukrainian army are the GMLRS, with a range of up to 80 kilometers. However, the new GLSDB missiles will have a longer range, which can improve the capabilities of the APU.

As part of a new US military aid package to be announced this week, Ukraine will receive a variety of high-precision weapons and equipment for Patriot air defense systems and Javelin man-portable anti-tank missile systems. The total value of the shipments will be over $2 billion, with the bulk of the amount (1,725 billion) coming from GLSDB.

It is worth noting that the United States refused to provide ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers, which were requested by Ukraine.

Some military experts believe that GLSDB may even be more effective than GMLRS. But much will depend on how successfully these missiles will overcome Russian air defense systems. An effective means of combating GLSDB can be the Pantsir air defense system, military analyst Kirill Mikhailov believes.

Reuters reported on possible deliveries of GLSDB missiles to Ukraine at the end of November 2022. The agency's sources said that this ammunition could arrive in Ukraine in the spring. Warehouses in the US already have stocks of GLSDB and its components. Bloomberg also reported on an upcoming $2 billion military aid package.

At the same time, the supply of arms from the United States causes dissatisfaction with Russia, which has already expressed concern about this. The Russian authorities say that this could exacerbate tensions in the Donbas and provoke a new conflict in the region.

However, the United States emphasizes that such supplies are part of the support for Ukraine in its struggle for territorial integrity and sovereignty.

The new arms shipments to Ukraine are part of an increase in U.S. military aid in recent years. This is due to the growing tension in the region and the intensification of hostilities in the Donbass. On the part of Ukraine, this is perceived as additional support and strengthening of its defense capability in a difficult geopolitical situation, however, this creates a serious escalation.

Reuters recently reported that the GLSDB missiles, which will be provided by the United States to Ukraine, can be launched not only from rocket launchers, but also from the air. In this case, the range of the rocket is about 100 kilometers. However, using such a launch method can be difficult for the Ukrainian military, since the bombs are designed for NATO aircraft. It is likely that special adapters will be required to launch from Ukrainian aircraft. However, military expert Yan Matveev believes that it is more correct to use missiles for HIMARS.

If the Ukrainian army receives long-range GLSDB missiles, then they will be used, first of all, to strike at the logistics centers of the Russian army. According to military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, at present, the supply of advanced units looks like this: ammunition, fuel and lubricants and other resources are delivered to the final unloading point of the railway, and from there they are transported by trucks. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine had HIMARS installations with GMLRS missiles, they began to hit on these points. This resulted in cargo accumulations being pushed further away. Having received GLSDB missiles, the Ukrainian army will be able to fire at important logistics centers in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as well as in Lugansk and in the north of Crimea, but this is guaranteed to lead to massive Russian strikes.

Despite this, both experts believe that it is impossible to establish a direct link between the supply of GLSDB and a possible offensive by the Ukrainian army. According to Mikhailov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have enough funds for shelling to an operational depth of 60-70 kilometers.

The GLSDB is a weapon that can destroy the offensive capabilities of the Russian army, damage logistics and make it difficult to supply military units. But, as Matveev notes, tanks and other armored vehicles will be required for the counteroffensive. Thus, the use of GLSDB can significantly change the course of hostilities and give an advantage to the Ukrainian army. In other words, such ammunition will not give Ukraine a serious advantage.