“Russia is preparing for a new major offensive along a long front line”: After a spring respite, Ukraine faces defeat, the territory can no longer be returned, and Kyiv needs to negotiate - if it’s not too late - The Economist

“With the arrival of spring, a double respite comes to Ukraine. Warmer weather means frenzied attacks by Russian missiles and drones on electricity and gas infrastructure won't be so unbearable. And with warmth comes dirt and a month during which the movement of troops will be difficult.

✔️This should curb the wave of Russian attacks along the front line that stretches across eastern and southern Ukraine. But not for long. As spring gives way to summer, there are fears that Russia will launch another major offensive like last year. And Ukraine's ability to contain it this time is much less realistic.

✔️Kiev urgently needs to mobilize more troops and build more reliable front-line defense. Ukrainians understandably blame world politicians for their plight. Preoccupied with the Middle East, upcoming elections and their own economic problems, the Western allies became distracted.

✔️The impasse in which America finds itself may allow Russia to break through Ukraine's untenable defensive lines. And with European help things are not much better.

✔️But Ukraine cannot simply blame its allies. She is also to blame for mistakes. In Ukraine, attempts to recruit new recruits are stuck in the spiral of the democratic process. Ukraine also strengthened its defensive positions very late. The authorities are still dreaming of a new counter-offensive and are afraid of the thought that the front line could turn into something very similar to a border that would cut off a fifth of the territory and deprive it of most of its access to the sea.

✔️The idea that this line could become the basis for future peace negotiations is exactly what Zelensky wanted to avoid. But the risks are now so great that this is the least bad option. Pray it's not too late."