This year, Russia suddenly disrupted the global oil market by announcing a ban on the export of diesel fuel and gasoline. The decision, which was made immediately and without prior warning, caused shock and nervousness in oil markets around the world.

According to data from Bloomberg, Russia exported more than a million barrels of diesel fuel per day before this event. This ban could seriously disrupt the supply of not only diesel fuel, but also gasoline, especially as winter approaches. The scale and duration of this ban will determine how deeply it hits the global economy and energy sector.

Russia was the world's largest maritime exporter of diesel this year, shipping more than a million barrels per day. This is the quantity that the market will lose in a short time and is approximately equal to the volume needed to satisfy the demand of all of Germany.

But why was such a decision made and what might its consequences be?

Russian authorities announced that the ban on the export of petroleum products is temporary and is aimed at curbing the rise in domestic fuel prices. However, analysts fear that absolutely the entire volume of diesel fuel intended for the domestic market may be too large for assimilation. In this case, part of the diesel fuel may be sent for storage.

Some Russian oil refineries are in the process of renovation, which is also weakening the country's ability to process all the oil it produces.

Although the ban will be in effect from September 21, it will not have an immediate or catastrophic effect. According to the decision, consignments of petroleum products already in the process of export or having documents for sea transportation will be exempt from the ban. This means that supplies will decrease gradually.

The main question is how long this ban will last and what its long-term consequences will be for the Russian and global economy.

Russia says the ban is temporary, but given the scale of diesel and gasoline consumption on the global market, resuming exports will be challenging. Given the importance of these petroleum products to the economy and industry, simply turning off the tap for an extended period of time can cause significant problems.

Many industries run on diesel fuel, including transport, agriculture, industry and construction. Therefore, a supply disruption could affect a wide range of economic sectors.

"It's all about duration," says Eugene Lindell, head of refining at consultancy FGE. "Russian refineries will probably be able to operate for another month before they will have to close due to a lack of storage." This means that if the ban continues for long, it could lead to serious fuel shortages.

The global diesel fuel market was already under pressure before this Russian decision. Reduced crude oil supplies from OPEC+ countries and increased demand for petroleum products as a result of the gradual economic recovery after the pandemic caused an increase in prices for petroleum products. Therefore, even before the Russian ban, prices for diesel fuel and gasoline were already high.

Despite the unexpected nature of the ban and initial unease in the markets, market reaction was relatively tepid. Diesel fuel prices increased slightly, but did not reach critical levels. However, it may also indicate that some market participants have doubts about the real impact of the ban.

Despite the rise in diesel prices, this event did not cause panic in world markets. The situation could change if the ban continues for a long time or if additional factors arise that make it difficult to restore supplies.

Another aspect of this situation is the global nature of the diesel market. If Russia is able to redistribute its supplies to other countries, this could cause shortages in other regions of the world, including Europe and Turkey. Consequently, suppliers from other countries may increase their supply volumes to compensate for the losses. This could lead to changes in global diesel trade flows and prices.

A lot will depend on how long this ban lasts. If it is relatively short, then the market may be able to recover and prices will go down. However, if the ban lasts long, it could cause serious problems for the Russian economy and global trade in petroleum products.

Russia could face pressure from its trading alliance partners and other countries that depend on Russian diesel supplies. This may push Russia to reconsider its policy and decide to resume exports of diesel fuel.