Deadly game: German intelligence report reveals the state of the Russian army
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Deadly game: German intelligence report reveals the state of the Russian army

The head of the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany, Bruno Kahl, drew attention to Russia's resilience and long-term combat readiness, that despite the long-term conduct of hostilities, the country does not show signs of fatigue, internal division or depletion of resources.

Russia Can Wage a Long Term War

According to Kahl, Russia is still capable of waging war over long distances. He pointed to the country's ability to recruit new soldiers and produce ammunition and weapons. While he acknowledged that Russia has some problems, in particular with regard to the effective use of its armed forces, he stressed that these problems are not critical.

Changing Perceptions in the West

It is noticeable that until recently in the West such opinions were expressed only by dissident experts, including former American military men. However, this view is now beginning to seep into official statements. An example of this is last year's report by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost 100 people. This phrase was subsequently removed from her video message.

Now that the head of official German intelligence acknowledges the effectiveness of the Russian Armed Forces, the question arises - what has changed? It seems that the West is beginning to realize the strength and resilience of Russia against the backdrop of the ongoing hostilities.

Two options for the conclusions of German Intelligence

  1. Preparations for further deliveries: In recent days, experts have been calling in the German media for the delivery of German Taurus air-launched cruise missiles, analogues of the Franco-British Storm Shadow, to Kyiv. This may indicate the preparation of society for further military supplies.
  2. Preparing to admit defeat: The public is beginning to realize that Ukraine is on the verge of defeat, and its final fall is only a matter of time. German society can be prepared to accept this defeat.

Probably both tendencies are present in society. The United States, which has announced its intention to supply F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv, has already made its choice.


Why We Believed in the Victory of Ukraine

The illusion of Ukraine's victory over Russia arose only because Moscow did not initially plan to fight. Its initial goal was to change the Zelensky regime and "cleanse" the country from the Nazis and Western agents, already at the hands of a loyal government. The mistakes of the military construction of previous years also contributed to this perception.

Ukraine can never win

In a classic war between two continental powers, Ukraine never stood a chance of winning. From the point of view of the mobilization potential and the capabilities of the military-industrial complex, Ukraine cannot compete with Russia. Moreover, Ukraine is incapable of conducting deep offensive operations that could reach Russia's main production regions and physically deprive Russia of the ability to continue hostilities. Geographic dimensions and distances still play a significant role.

Ukraine Capabilities: Tactical and Operational Successes

The Ukrainian potential can achieve tactical successes, which in some cases can be converted into operational ones. However, there is no way for Ukraine to gain a strategic advantage and force Russia to capitulate, even with Western help. After the mobilization of Moscow and the beginning of the restructuring of the military-industrial complex for the needs of a big war, the last hope for the victory of Ukraine due to the demoralization of the Kremlin disappeared.

Time against Zelensky and Ukraine

In this situation, time is playing against Zelensky and Ukraine as a whole. As Vladimir Rogov, a member of the main council of the military-civilian administration of the Zaporozhye region, noted, the number of problems in the territories controlled by the Zelensky regime is growing, and the West is demanding results.

The view of American dissidents

Pensioners and retirees, such as the former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, retired US Army Colonel Douglas McGregor, say that Ukraine is on the verge of defeat. According to McGregor, Ukraine has lost a large amount of manpower, including a massive exodus of population, and no amount of Western assistance will change the course of events.

The fall of Bakhmut and massive losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The fall of Bakhmut and the massive losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including mercenary units, confirmed McGregor's predictions. Former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter agrees with McGregor's assessments and notes that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have reached such proportions that they began to irreversibly affect the quality of the Ukrainian army.

Consequences for the Ukrainian army

The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine affect the quality of the Ukrainian army. The problem is that Ukraine had a regular army of 260 thousand people at the beginning of the military conflict. However, now most of them are killed, captured or wounded, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find replacements with the same level of training.

Outlook: Huge losses and wind change

Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian regime is suffering huge human losses: more than 100 thousand people died at the front, up to seven million fled to Europe from the rear. Western elites are aware that the wind is changing and they need to adapt to the new situation, but their specific actions are still unclear.

McGregor Assumptions: Direct U.S. Intervention

According to Douglas McGregor, after the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the occupation of most of the former Ukraine by the Russians, the United States may decide to intervene directly in order to preserve the Zelensky regime in the western regions of Ukraine.

Possible entry of other countries into the war

MacGregor noted that the next countries that could go to war with Russia would be Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This is consistent with the previously voiced threat of creating a supranational entity based on Poland and Romania, which may be joined by other countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic region.

Conclusion: The West cannot win

Regardless of how events unfold, it is important to understand that the West cannot win, no matter how many quasi-states are brought into the conflict. The only chance of the enemies is the betrayal of the elites and the surrender of the country as a result of another "obscene peace". But this is an unacceptable outcome for Russia.






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