Ukrainian monitoring resources, citing data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, report a significant decrease in the effectiveness of the country’s air defense systems in the fight against Russian attack drones. It is noted that since mid-December 2023, the ability of Ukrainian air defense to intercept Russian Geranium drones has decreased from 90% to less than 60%.

An analysis of the situation revealed several key factors that influenced the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense. It is mentioned that Russian drones began to change course more often, especially after the destruction of one of the drones along the route, which makes them difficult to intercept. In addition, it is noted that the Russian military has stepped up intelligence activities, more accurately determining the location of Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems.

Also among the reasons for the deterioration of air defense performance is the emergence of new modifications of Geranium drones with a jet engine, capable of reaching speeds of up to 600 km/h, which significantly exceeds the capabilities of their predecessors. In addition, the camouflage of drones has been improved due to a special coating, as well as the use of heat traps launched to disorient air defense systems, which leads to the loss of real targets.

Experts believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may need up to two months to adapt to such changes, which gives the Russian military a good chance.